Romney wins in a landslide — Las Vegas oddsmaker doubles down on prediction

As the new headlines reads Swing States poll: Women push Romney into lead, a successful Las Vegas oddsmaker predicts: a Mitt Romney landslide victory in November!

Read on:

Yes, you read that headline correctly. I am a Las Vegas oddsmaker (and former  Libertarian vice presidential candidate) and here’s why I am so boldly  predicting a Romney landslide.

 

In November of 2004, only days before the presidential election, I went on  CNBC and predicted a Bush victory by 3 points and 30 electoral votes. Every poll  at the time showed Kerry in the lead. Bush won by 3 and 35. Newsmax magazine  called it the most accurate prediction of 2004.
In October of 2006, I  went on Fox News to predict the GOP would get slaughtered in the midterm  election and lose Congress. They did.
In December 2011, before the GOP  primary, I predicted Mitt Romney would win the GOP presidential nomination and  go on to win the presidency. For the next few months, Romney trailed by a wide  margin to a range of contenders — Donald Trump, Rick Perry, Herman Cain,  Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum. It seemed no one wanted Mitt for  president. It seemed no one believed in Mitt. No one, that is, except this Las  Vegas oddsmaker and capitalist evangelist.
Fast forward to Spring 2012  after Romney clinched the GOP nomination, but trailed in every poll to President  Obama. I boldly predicted a Mitt Romney landslide on Election Day, November  6.
Fast forward to June 2012, when experts predicted a defeat for  Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in his recall election. Unions were pouring  unheard of sums into the race in a longtime Democratic state that welcomes union  rights. I boldly predicted a Walker landslide victory of 7 to 10 points. He won  by exactly 7 (despite reported Democratic voter irregularities).
For the  past month, as Mitt Romney trailed badly in almost every poll, especially in the  all-important battleground states, I continued to predict a big Romney victory.  Today I’m making it official:
I’m doubling down. Mitt Romney will win the  presidency, and it won’t be close.
I’m predicting a 5 to 7 point popular  vote victory. Electorally it won’t even be that close.

Romney will win many  states that went to Obama in 2008. I’m predicting Romney victories in Ohio,  Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and  Indiana. I predict a Romney victory by 100 to 120 electoral votes.
In the  days before the first presidential debate, polls showed Romney trailing badly in  most of those states. But, as I’ve argued from day one, the polls are wrong.  They are badly skewed towards Democrats. Quite simply they are over-polling  Democratic voters and assuming a turnout that looks like 2008, when record  numbers of Democrats came out for Obama. After Romney’s  overwhelming victory in the first debate he now leads, or is dead even in  battleground states where, only days before, he was supposedly way behind. My  contention is a 1 point Romney lead in those Democrat-skewed polls is really a  comfortable 5 to 7 point Romney lead on election day.

Electoral map today

There are several  specific reasons I predict a comfortable Romney victory on election day:

  • The news media is ignoring signs of mass revulsion towards President Obama.  In the West Virginia Democrat primary, a felon got 40% of the vote versus Obama.  In deep blue Massachusetts and Connecticut, GOP Senate candidates are even, or  leading in recent polls. In pro-union Wisconsin, Walker won by a country mile.  But worst of all for Mr. Obama, several recent polls show Romney competitive in  Illinois — Obama’s home state. Romney is actually winning by a landslide in the  suburbs of Obama’s Chicago. Even in Cook County, the country’s biggest  Democratic stronghold, Romney leads by double digits among independents (43-31)  and white voters (53-40). These are very bad signs for Obama.
  • In 2008 Democrats overwhelmingly controlled the majority of governorships.  Today Republicans control the majority of Governorships. Presidential elections  are always steered in each state by the governor — the most powerful force in  state politics.
  • After the 2010 census, electoral votes were added to states that lean  Republican in elections: Texas, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, South  Carolina, and Utah. Deep blue Democrat states like New York, New Jersey,  Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Massachusetts lost electoral votes.
    That brings up an interesting point. Why is everyone running away from these  ultra liberal, high tax states in the first place? Isn’t that alone proof of the  failure of Democrat ideas?
  • Next, follow the money trail. Yes, Obama is raising plenty of money,  although there is now a major question about whether it’s coming from illegal  foreign contributors. But forget all that. What matters is that in 2008 Obama  overwhelmed McCain by out-spending him 10 to 1 down the stretch. That won’t  happen in 2012. Romney is even, or can out-spend Obama, in the last 2 weeks of  the election. That makes a huge difference in the outcome.
  • Christians will turn out in record numbers this year. Obama has offended  Christians again and again. Last election 20 million evangelical Christians did  not vote. They will turn out in record numbers in 2012 to defeat the most  anti-Christian President in US history. How motivated are Christians? Did you  see the long lines around the country to support Chick-fil-A this summer? You’ll  see those same lines on election day.
  • Voter rolls have been purged in 2012 of felons and illegals in many states — particularly Florida and Ohio. Turnout of Democrats will be nothing like  2008.
    Which brings up another important question. What kind of political  party relies on felons and people illegally in the country to win elections?
  • The “Enthusiasm Factor” for Romney is huge. Conservatives are focused,  intense, motivated, and enthusiastic. Democrats turned out for Obama in record  numbers in 2008. Today they are demoralized. A big edge goes to Romney on  Election Day as conservatives, white voters, middle class voters and  independents turn out in record numbers for Romney.
    I know several people  who voted for Obama in 2008, but never again.  Does anyone know a McCain  voter who will vote for Obama in 2012? There are none.
  • Finally, history proves that a majority of undecided voters break for the  challenger. Romney will take most of the undecided voters on election day — just like Reagan did versus Jimmy Carter in 1980. Romney’s fantastic debate  performance gave them confidence to choose the challenger.

This is Carter/Reagan all over again. The same horrible same  economically ignorant fool in the White House bringing misery to Americans. The  same economic collapse under the weight of socialist, pro union, soak the rich,  demonize the business owners, policies.
I predict the same result  on election day. Mitt Romney in a landslide.
And If I’m wrong- God help  the United States of America.

Wayne Allyn Root is a capitalist evangelist and serial entrepreneur. He is  a former Libertarian vice presidential nominee. He now serves as chairman of the  Libertarian National Campaign Committee. He is the best-selling author of  “The  Conscience of a Libertarian: Empowering the Citizen Revolution with God, Guns,  Gold & Tax Cuts.” For more, visit his website: www.ROOTforAmerica.com.


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/10/09/romney-will-win-in-landslide-las-vegas-oddsmaker-doubles-down-on-prediction/#ixzz29UUSuEvN

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